Nearly one Canadian in two expects Canada to be part of a North American union within 10 years, a new opinion poll finds, while one in four believe the country will be absorbed by the United States within 20 years.

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates, concluded that 45% of respondents believe it is very likely Canada will become part of a North American union within 10 years. Just 24% reported it is very unlikely Canada will join a union with other North American countries over the same period.

"It is a quite a surprising lean to the idea that this is going to occur," said Frank Graves, president of EKOS.

The survey also found that Canadians believe it is quite likely they will come to share common banks with Americans, but believe it is less likely the two countries will have common courts, currency and especially elections.

"They may feel a North American currency would be something that is in the offing," Mr. Graves said, "and they may feel that there may be some need for multilateral political structures to deal with some of the issues that might emerge in a North American union."

Mel Hurtig, the founder of the nationalist Council of Canadians, said he was "extraordinarily depressed" by the findings, which are officially released today.

The poll also found 17% agreed that Canada would be absorbed by the United States within 10 years, while 23% said Canada would be gone as a nation-state within 20 years.

"Given the current political leadership that we have in this country, there is little doubt in my mind that that is exactly what is going to happen" said Mr. Hurtig, author of the upcoming book The Vanishing Country, about Canada's demise as a nation.

"We now have the most continentalist and conservative Liberal government in the entire history of our nation.

"If we continue to go in the direction that we have been going -- harmonizing policies, abandoning control of our resources, selling off Canadian companies, integrating Canadian economic, social and culture policies, massive forces wanting to see more foreign ownership in the banks and in telecommunications industries, and huge lobbies for dollarization -- and with a government that doesn't seem to give a damn about retaining Canadian sovereignty, there's no way this country is going to survive."

But Herbert Grubel, a Vancouver-based economist and former Reform party MP, said a North American union would be an extremely positive economic move.

"It would lead to lower interest rates, lower transaction costs, higher growth and greater certainty for international trade," he said. "And it is estimated that it would lead to a higher income of 30% in Canada because of increased trade.

"Canadians see there is something seriously wrong with Canada and they are looking for something else," he said.

Still, the EKOS poll found 75% of those surveyed -- up 10% compared with last year -- did not favour a common North American currency over the Canadian dollar. About 66% said the declining Canadian dollar is a great concern.

EKOS surveyed 3,077 Canadian adults between April 24 and May 22. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points 19 times in 20.

The Centre for Research and Information on Canada -- the research division of the Council for Canadian Unity -- found similar results when they commissioned a poll on the eve of international trade talks in Quebec City two months ago.

Andrew Parkin, assistant director at the research centre, said yesterday the EKOS finding shows that Canadians "understand 'union' in a very pragmatic sense as in dealing with an economic framework, but they don't see it as a threat to the country. It doesn't mean they don't want to be Canadian and it doesn't mean they think they're going to lose their Canadianness."